|
Chapter Four
4. Macroeconomic
policy, fiscal federalism and regions
Macroeconomic policies can
be designed so that they affect regions in different ways. The goals of such a
"positive" discrimination can be different too: achieving accelerated
development for some of them; smoothening uneven distribution of wealth or
giving an initiative for the development of an industry which has or may have a
comparative advantage in a region.
The aim of this section is
to consider a different kind of federal policy, not directly targeting
regional discrimination,
however, unevenly affecting regions. In fact, as
long as
regional disparities
take place, any macroeconomic policy is
discriminative in the sense that it inevitably causes interregional
redistribution of wealth. This is especially true for
fiscal policies
in federative countries. With regard to changes in
budgetary policy, this fact was studied, from the theoretical perspective, in
Quigley and Rubinfeld (1986).
By the very nature of
fiscal federalism,
the fiscal system is designed to achieve national
goals and priorities and to redistribute wealth across the countrys
regions. (See Musgrave, 1969 and 1971; Musgrave, Case and Leonard, 1974).
Figure 4.1a represents the general structure of
fiscal flows
in a federal system with three levels of
government. Both "bottom-up" flows of taxes collected by different levels of
governments and "top-bottom" flows of operational grants and expenditures are
indicated with arrows of different colours. A few of the real federal systems
may have all or only some of the represented flows.
After taxes are collected
by the federal and state governments, one or both of the following reasons may
cause a redistribution of income:
- Operational grants from
a higher to a lower level of government (if they are a feature of a particular
countrys fiscal system) are not proportional to the amount of tax
collected; or
- The expenditure flows of
the government, which occur across space, are distributed to states or local
regions not proportionally to "bottom-up" fiscal flows.
In this section, we
consider regional consequences caused by a restructuring of the fiscal system.
The currently debated reform of the federal taxation system in Australia is
used as an example. Theoretical analysis is undertaken using a two region/two
product model. The aim of the modelling exercise is to illustrate the imminence
of the uneven impact on regions of a government budget.
4.1. Case Study 2. Proposed federal tax reform in
Australia
4.1.1. Background. The Australian taxation system
The Australian taxation
system has all the features demonstrated in Figure 4.1. All three levels of
government collect various taxes, which form a particular component of their
budgets. Meanwhile, another component of the state and local budgets is
operational grants form higher to lower level governments. Unlike the USA, in
Australia the federal component of the fiscal revenue plays a considerable role
in the formation of not only the federal, but also state budgets.
The Australian Taxation
Office collects three major federal taxes:
Income
taxis based on the assessable income of Australian residents and
legal entities, applicable tax rates and some allowed deductions. Regional
disparities in per capita tax exist as long as there are disparities in per
capita income flows.
Capital gains
taxis paid when a capital asset is disposed at a price, which is
higher than the price originally paid for the asset. The amount of the capital
gains tax collected across regions differs as long as the amount of capital
transactions are different.
Fringe
benefits tax is payable by employers proportionally to non-income
benefits they provide to their employees. Historically different sectors of the
Australian economy have had different proportions of fringe benefits in their
remuneration packages to their employees. Therefore, regional differences in
the industry structure may cause relative differences in fringe benefits tax
flows.
Several taxes are collected
by means other than the Australian Taxation Office. The most important, in
terms of tax revenue, is
sales tax
. Sales tax is a wholesale tax. The rates are
set by the Federal government and are uniform across states, but different for
different products. Some products such as food are not taxable. Services are
not subject to this tax. Regional disparities in tax liability with regard to
sales tax are also determined by different industrial structures.
4.1.2. The governmental proposal of taxation
reform. Pro and contra arguments in the public debate
After extensive debate
during the recent decade, the current Liberal Coalition Government was
re-elected with a comprehensive taxation reform on the agenda. The following
measures were debated:
- Income tax reduction
through a reduction of the marginal rates and increasing the tax free
threshold;
- Eliminating the
wholesale taxes;
- Elimination or reduction
of several other indirect or excise taxes;
- Introduction of a
capital gains tax free threshold for capital gains on small transactions;
- Shifting the fiscal
responsibility for fringe benefit taxes from employers to employees; and
- Introduction of a broad
Goods and Services Tax (GST)
.
The GST is supposed to be
levied on each transaction in the production, distribution and supply chain
(with credit being given for GST paid up the chain). Contrary to the experience
of some other federative countries like the USA, it is supposed to be uniform
across states. The Federal Government proposes the GST to be levied on as broad
a spectrum of goods and services as possible. However, not all the transactions
are technically possible to tax; and interest groups lobby different
exemptions. Therefore, it is argued that some items should be excluded from the
GST. Among the debated items are: food; sales of second hand goods except
margin added; private sales; exports; medical services; education;
international air and sea travel; childcare; charitable activities and
religious services; financial services; residential rent; disposal of private
residences; give-aways; etc.
The proposed reforms are
supported by a rather broad community of business people and analysts. The
following arguments have been put forward:
- Such a reform has been
long overdue.
- Inflation tends to move
taxpayers to higher tax margin brackets. Therefore income tax, to a greater
extent, becomes a disincentive to work harder and to earn more; and income tax
reduction is necessary.
- The Australian economy
is an extremely open one. Wholesale and excise taxes appear to be indirect
taxation on exports, making Australian exports less competitive. For example,
the existing excise tax on fuel is added to the costs of farm products and,
therefore, decreases their competitiveness.
- The proposed GST reduces
opportunities for tax avoidance, as even cash income owners and quasi-legal
"tax-minimisers" will be paying taxes through goods and services transactions.
- The GST has a potential
to increase the propensity to save and invest.
Arguments of the opponents
are related to welfare implications in the immediate short run.
Income groups, spend
different proportions of their incomes on goods and services. They also have
different consumption baskets. Lower income groups earners have lower
proportions of those goods subject to the abolition of the wholesale sales tax.
One of the consequences of the proposed restructuring of the fiscal system will
be increased prices for most goods and services as the result of the GST.
Low-income groups, who are in low income tax brackets, will not gain much as
the result of decrease income tax rates. Neither do they have discretionary
income sufficient for increasing their savings. At the same time, they will
lose relatively more from increased prices, compared to higher income groups.
The advantages and
disadvantages of the proposed reform are discussed mainly in the economic and
social context, but ignore regional perspectives. Regions have different
structures of industries and hence the impact of the fiscal reform will be felt
differently by regions, depending upon the proportion, in each region, of
sectors more sensitive to reform. The same is true with regards to regional
disparities in income and expenditure structures.
The regional disparities,
in the context of proposed reforms, can be considered with regard to broad
geographic areas (metropolitan, urban other than metropolitan and rural),
states, or sub-state levels of aggregation.
In the following section,
some empirical estimates are demonstrated with regard to short-run effects of
the taxation reforms on household income and expenditure in broad geographic
areas. A model illustration is presented of the disparities caused by regional
differences in industry structure.
4.2. Regional impact of fiscal policy: An approach to
empirical and theoretical analysis.
Some empirical estimates
The Australian Bureau of
Statistics periodically conducts comprehensive income and expenditure surveys
across Australian states and
broad geographic areas
. The survey distinguishes certain income groups,
categories of households and expenditure on different groups of goods and
services.
Australian regions (both
states and broad geographic areas) differ with regard to total disposal income,
aggregate regional expenditure
and the structure of expenditure by categories of
goods and services and by groups of households (Table
4.1 and Table 4.2 [the data is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics,
1994]). Therefore, the consequences of the reforms should be expected to differ
across regions. This hypothesis is demonstrated below using broad geographic
area data. The following assumptions are used for the numerical experiment.
| Table 4.2:
Welfare Disparities in Australia: Broad Geographic Areas |
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE AND
CHARACTERISTICS BY BROAD GEOGRAPHICAL AREA, AUSTRALIA, 1993-94
|
| |
Metropolitan |
|
Other
urban |
|
Rural |
|
All
households |
| AVERAGE WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE ($)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Broad expenditure
group |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Commodity or
service |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Current housing
costs (selected dwelling) |
95.74 |
|
72.14 |
|
49.12 |
|
85.38 |
| Fuel and
power |
17.17 |
|
15.78 |
|
16.89 |
|
16.77 |
| Food and
non-alcoholic beverages |
115.83 |
|
100.63 |
|
107.28 |
|
111 |
| Alcoholic
beverages |
17.09 |
|
18.4 |
|
17.35 |
|
17.46 |
| Tobacco |
9.33 |
|
8.87 |
|
9.14 |
|
9.19 |
| Clothing and
footwear |
36.99 |
|
28.17 |
|
26.53 |
|
33.71 |
| Household
furnishings and equipment |
40.12 |
|
39.31 |
|
36.2 |
|
39.56 |
| Household services
and operation |
32.19 |
|
29.81 |
|
32.58 |
|
31.58 |
| Medical care and
health expenses |
28.34 |
|
24.6 |
|
26.13 |
|
27.14 |
| Transport |
95.44 |
|
89.15 |
|
93.57 |
|
93.58 |
| Recreation |
83.94 |
|
72.82 |
|
65.21 |
|
79.34 |
| Personal
care |
12.05 |
|
10.52 |
|
8.87 |
|
11.37 |
| Miscellaneous
commodities and services |
49.41 |
|
39.14 |
|
42.26 |
|
46.02 |
| Total commodity and
service expenditure |
633.63 |
|
549.35 |
|
531.16 |
|
602.11 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Income
tax |
156.1 |
|
106.12 |
|
90.45 |
|
136.99 |
| Average weekly
household income ($) |
783.09 |
|
627.41 |
|
574.45 |
|
723.23 |
| Number of households
in sample |
6107 |
|
1712 |
|
570 |
|
8389 |
| Estimated total
number in households |
4264.4 |
|
1787.9 |
|
564.5 |
|
6616.8 |
The Federal Government
introduces a 10% GST (this is the rate of GST currently under
consideration).
The income tax rate is
reduced to return to the taxpayers the gain received as the result of the
introduction of GST.
The rest of the taxes are
left unchanged.
The reform is federal
budget neutral.
In addition, special
statistics are introduced for the inter-regional comparison of income and
expenditure distribution -
Cultural Subsistence Level of
Expenditure for Goods and Services
. Let us define it as:
The amount of the
households weekly expenditure for goods and services which does not
exceed the households disposable income per week, but does not allow any
savings.
We assume that in the
current economic and cultural situation of a particular country, there are no
degrees of freedom in making expenditure decisions below the Cultural
Subsistence Level. Looking at the cross-section data of income and expenditure
sorted in ascending order (Figure 4.1b), a percentage
of households spend more than their income. The empirical point of intersection
is $491.20 per household per week. It is the break-even point. This point can
be used as an estimate of the Cultural Subsistence Level of Expenditure for
Goods and Services. Disposable income less Cultural Subsistence Level of
Expenditure constitutes the level of
cultural discretionary
income,
or the part of disposable income, that households
can use for discretionary purposes.
The results of the
numerical experiments are demonstrated in Figure 4.2.
One hundred per cent is the national average discretionary expenditure for
goods and services by households in real terms. The bars represent the
deviation of corresponding indicators in the regions from the national average
in per cent. The blue bars are those deviations before, and burgundy bars after
the reform of the taxation system is introduced. The results indicate a
considerable difference in discretionary expenditure across Australian regions.
The differences are expected to become even greater as a result of the
reform.
Therefore, in the short run
regions may be affected differently by the proposed reform measures. However,
such consideration does not give an answer to questions about long run
consequences of additional savings, investments, and more favourable conditions
for businesses.
4.2.2. An approach to analysis
using the two-region/two-sector model
Let us consider the variant
of the reform affecting just two taxes. The income tax is reduced at a uniform
rate and the goods and services tax is introduced uniformly across all regions,
products, and services. The comparative impact of such a reform on each of the
regions is evaluated looking at different variables. In the current Australian
context of late 1990s, for example, a rather good economic climate is
overshadowed by a rather high level of unemployment. Therefore, from the
regional perspective, it is important to look at the impact of the taxation
reform on regional levels of employment. This is considered below, using the
two-region/two-sector illustrative model.
In the original model
(2.1)-(2.7), no taxes were introduced, and disposable income depended only on
wages. In such a context, the reduction in income tax can be interpreted as a
negative income tax or an increment to disposable income. Therefore, after tax
disposal income can be represented as:
, (4.1)
where
t (0<t<1) -
rate of reduction in income tax;
M - pre-reform
disposable income;
and -
employment in both regions; and
and -
pre-reform after-tax wage rates in both regions.
For simplicity, let us
assume zero cross-price elasticities of demand. Then the demand function for
each product depends upon the price of this product and aggregate demand for
this product in both regions. Introduction of a new goods and services tax
alone is interpreted as an addition to the consumer price for the output of
both industries/regions, which changes the demand functions in the following
way:
, (4.2)
, (4.3)
where g (0<g<1) is
the uniform rate of GST; and other variables are defined as for the basic model
in section 2.
In addition, in line with
the discussion of microeconomic reforms in the previous section, the short-run
case is considered with the production functions dependent only on the factor
labour:
; (4.4)
. (4.5)
Let us consider relative
changes in the demand for the product of each region as the result of changes
in the taxation system. In terms of small relative changes of both income tax
and GST rates, the differential form of demand functions is:
, (4.6)
, (4.7)
On the supply side, the
producers in both regions do not see the prices changed, and therefore the
supply functions (2.10) and (2.11) are left unchanged, as in the original
model.
Finally, according to the
concept of the reform, the total additional tax collected as the result of the
introduction of GST is to be returned to the taxpayer as an income tax
reduction. In terms of small changes this allows us to assume that:
(4.8)
The condition of
equilibrium of demand and supply, in terms of this model, can be written as the
result of combining (2.10) and (2.11) with (4.6) and (4.7):
, (4.9)
. (4.10)
The expressions for changes
in prices are obtained as the result of combining the supply functions (2.10)
and (2.11) with production functions (4.4) and (4.5):
(4.11)
(4.12)
Substitution of (4.11) and
(4.12) in (4.9) and (4.10) for changes in prices
and
as well as substitution
for
from (4.8), after some
transformations, gives the following expressions for changes in employment in
each region:
(4.13)
(4.14)
Equations (4.13) - (4.14)
demonstrate the dependence of regional changes in employment upon two common
variables t and M. t is a macroeconomic policy variable.
Change in t reflects both the governmental decision on income tax
reduction, and the loss of budget revenue compensated by the introduction of
(or change in) GST. M is aggregate disposable income. In real terms, it
is affected by both income tax reduction, and the introduction of a GST.
Even though the relative
change in employment in each of the regions depends upon these two common
variables, the magnitude of the impact is different and depends upon relative
regional values of the elasticity parameters. In particular, greater income
elasticity of demand or
causes a greater increase in
employment in the corresponding region. In contrast, greater negative values of
price elasticity of demand for the regional product
or
contribute to a movement in the
opposite direction, toward a greater decrease demand and, therefore, in
employment. (These are negative parameters included in both equations (4.13)
and (4.14) in denominators and with the negative sign.) Also, in the short run,
higher labour costs of the regional product, reflected in equations (4.13) and
(4.13) by labour elasticities of output
and
, cause a relatively slower
increase in the employment in the corresponding region. (These are positive
parameters included in both equations (4.13) and (4.14) in denominators and
with the positive sign.)
Therefore, generally,
reforming federal fiscal policies may contribute to regional disparities, in
employment and in other regional economic variables.
4.3. Conclusions
Using the example of the
fiscal reform proposed by the Australian Federal Government, the uneven impact
of such a reform on regions was demonstrated based on both empirical data and a
theoretical perspective. Disparities in the outcome of the reform across
regions are attributable to the following:
- Regional differences in the proportion of various
income and expenditure groups of households. Income and expenditure groups contribution to the governmental
budget varies both in total amount and in the amount contributed to different
components of the tax mix. Therefore, any reform of the tax mix unevenly
changes regional net income and expenditure patterns
- Regional differences
in industry mix.
- Changes in household
income and expenditure patterns affect the industry/product composition of
demand and therefore, regional employment.
- The sensitivity of
demand for different products in the regional composition of output to changes
in income as well as the impact on prices is different across regions.
- Changes in prices affect
regions differently due to differences in the composition of elastic and
inelastic goods in regional output.
- Employment in the
regions with a higher proportion of industries producing income-elastic
products is more sensitive to the reform. The sensitivity of employment is also
different due to disparities, across regions, of the labour intensive
industries.
4.4. Bibliography
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The Parliament of the
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Glossary |
|
Aggregate regional expenditure |
The total amount
that all consumers, businesses, firms and government agencies spend on goods
and services within a region. |
|
Broad geographic areas |
In the Australian
statistics, metropolitan areas of the federal and state capitals including
suburbs; urban areas other than metropolitan; and rural areas.
|
|
Cultural discretionary income |
A part of disposable
income that households can use for discretionary purposes |
|
Cultural subsistence level of expenditure for goods and
services |
The amount of the
households weekly expenditure for goods and services which does not
exceed the households disposable income per week, but does not allow for
savings. |
|
Deregulation |
Partial or complete
removal of rules regulating an industry. |
|
Employment effect |
The impact of a
micro- or macroeconomic policy on national or regional employment.
|
|
Excise taxes |
Taxes levied upon
goods produced for domestic consumption. |
|
Expenditure effect |
The impact of a
micro- or macroeconomic policy on national or regional aggregate expenditure.
|
|
Fiscal federalism |
Coordination of
central and state (provincial) fiscal policies in the countries with federal
governmental systems. |
|
Fiscal flow |
Flow of revenue to
the central or regional government budget or governmental
expenditure. |
|
Fiscal policies |
Policies targeting
government budget revenue and expenditure. |
|
Fringe benefit tax |
Taxed payable by
employers for benefits, other than wages and salaries, provided to
employees. |
|
Goods and services tax |
An indirect tax
levied on each transaction of broad spectrum of goods and services.
|
|
Income taxIndustry restructuring |
See "Microeconomic reform" |
|
Macroeconomic reform |
Change in macroeconomic policy directing the behaviour of firms,
households and governmental bodies towards particular goals in aggregate
demand, employment, balance of payment and other microeconomic variables. Can
unevenly affect regions. |
|
Microeconomic reform |
Change in market structure and/or regulation initiated by the
government in attempt to increase output at given factors by making markets
work efficiently. Can unevenly affect regions with different concentration of
the industry affected by the reform. |
|
Natural monopoly |
A monopoly that occurs when the optimal size of the firm is close to
the size of the national or regional market. |
|
Outsourcing |
Contracting out production of an intermediate good or service by a
company, which previously produced that good or service in-house.
|
|
Privatisation |
The process of selling a public company to private owners.
|
|
Reform factor |
In production functions, a variable representing an integrated effect
of microeconomic reform on the production possibility of a firm. The reform
factor can partially substitute one or more conventional factors.
|
|
Regional disparities |
Regional differences in key economic and social characteristics such
as: gross regional product, income per capita, unemployment,
etc. |
|
Regional discrimination |
A macro- or microeconomic policy unevenly affecting regions; or a
regional policy designed to achieve particular goals in particular regions.
|
|
Sales tax |
Indirect tax levied on goods and services. |
|
SECV |
State Electricity Commission of Victoria the governmental
authority that was responsible for running the state owned electricity industry
in the State of Victoria, Australia prior to the reform of early
1990s. |
|
Voluntary departure package |
A lump sum offered by a company, downsizing its labour force, to those
employees who voluntarily agree to terminate their contracts before expiration.
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