Regional Impact Models

by

Wiliam A. Schaffer
Professor of Economics
Georgia Institute of Technology

June 1999
All rights reserved


PREFACE

1. INTRODUCTION

2. REGIONAL MODELS OF INCOME DETERMINATION: SIMPLE ECONOMIC-BASE THEORY
  2.1 Economic-base concepts
  2.1.1 Antecedents
  2.1.2 Modern origins
  2.2 The structure of macroeconomic models
  2.3 The "strawman" export-base model
  2.4 The typical economic-base model
  2.5 Techniques for calculating multiplier values
  2.5.1 Comparison of planner's relationship and the economist's model
  2.5.2 The survey method
  2.5.3 The ad hoc assumption approach
  2.5.4 Location quotients
  2.5.5 Minimum requirements
  2.5.6 "Differential" multipliers: a multiple regression analysis
  2.6 Critique: advantages, disadvantages, praise, criticism
  2.7 Study questions
  2.8 EXERCISE-Export-Base Multiplier Calculations

3. INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES AND REGIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
  3.1 Introduction
  3.2 The regional transactions table
  3.3 Income and product accounts
  3.4 Summary
  3.5 Study questions
  3.6 Appendix 1 CD-ROM data sources
  3.7 Appendix 2 Measures of regional welfare
  3.7.1 The problem with GSP estimates
  3.7.2 The widespread use of personal income estimates

4. THE LOGIC OF INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS
  4.1 Introduction
  4.2 The rationale for a model: analysis vs. description
  4.3 Preparing the transactions table: closing with respect to households
  4.4 The economic model
  4.4.1 Identities: the transactions table
  4.4.2 Technical conditions: the direct-requirements table
  4.4.3 Equilibrium condition: supply equals demand
  4.4.4 Solution to the system: the total-requirements table
  4.5 Economic change in input-output models
  4.5.1 Causes vs. consequences of change
  4.5.2 Structural change
  4.5.3 Changes in final demand
  4.6 Study questions

5. REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS
  5.1 Introduction
  5.2 The multiplier concept
  5.2.1 An intuitive explanation
  5.2.2 The iterative approach
  5.3 Multiplier transformations
  5.3.1 Output multipliers
  5.3.2 Employment multipliers
  5.3.3 Income multipliers
  5.3.4 Government-income multipliers
  5.4 Study questions
  5.5 Exercise Input-output model manipulation and solution
  5.6.1 Introduction
  5.6.2 Income multipliers
  5.6.3 Employment multipliers
  5.6.4 Output multipliers
  5.6.5 Observations and summary
  5.6.6 Further extensions

6. INTERREGIONAL MODELS
  6.1 Interregional economic-base models
  6.1.1 Review of one-region models
  6.1.2 Two-region model with interregional trade
  6.2 Extensions and further study
  6.2.1 Interregional interindustry models
  6.2.2 Economic-ecologic models
  6.3 Study questions

7. COMMODITY-BY-INDUSTRY ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS: THE NOVA SCOTIA INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES
  7.1 Introduction
  7.2 A schematic social-accounting framework
  7.2.1 Commodity accounts
  7.2.2 Industry accounts
  7.2.3 Final accounts
  7.3 Aggregated input-output tables
  7.3.1 The commodity flows table
  7.3.2 The commodity origins table
  7.4 Study questions

8. COMMODITY-BY-INDUSTRY INTERINDUSTRY MODELS: THE LOGIC OF THE NOVA SCOTIA INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
  8.1 Introduction
  8.2 The data
  8.3 Technical conditions
  8.3.1 The constant-imports assumption
  8.3.2 The constant market-share assumption
  8.3.3 The constant-technology assumption
  8.3.4 Equilibrium condition: supply equals demand
  8.3.5 Solution: the total-requirements table
  8.4 Economic change in commodity-by-industry models
  8.5 Study questions

9. BUILDING INTERINDUSTRY MODELS
  9.1 The basic model
  9.2 Estimating techniques
  9.2.1 Survey-only techniques
  9.2.2 The supply-demand pool procedure
  9.2.3 Export-survey method
  9.2.4 Selected-values method
  9.3 Commodity-by-industry procedures
  9.3.1 RIMS
  9.3.2 IMPLAN
  9.3.3 IO7
  9.3.4 IOPC
  9.3.5 Others
  9.4 Study questions

ANSWERS TO SELECTED QUESTIONS

REFERENCES