Alternate Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations / Randall W. Jackson and Alan T. Murray / Research Paper #2002-9
Paper is replaced by reprint of article in Economic Systems Research 16,2:135-148, (2004).
Abstract: There has been a recent resurgence of interest in biproportional adjustment methods for updating and interpreting change in matrix representations of regional structures, most commonly input-output accounts. Although the biproportional method, commonly called the RAS technique in the input-output context, has been shown to have a number of theoretically appealing properties, various alternatives do exist. In this paper, we develop and assess empirically a number of alternatives, comparing performance and examining attributes of these adjustment methods.

Modeling Migration Effects on Agricultural Lands: A Growth Equilibrium Model / Yohannes G. Hailu and Randall S. Rosenberger
Research Paper #2002-8 / Paper is reprinted in Agricultural and Resources Economics Review, 33,1: 50-60 (2004).
Abstract: Growth in population and employment can result in increased demands on agricultural land for non-agricultural uses. This study develops a growth equilibrium model at the county-level for the state of West Virginia. Each growth model is a structural equation model that addresses the endogeneity of population densities and employment densities. Three single-decade models are specified - 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s using a two-stage least squares regression technique. Each model is unique, reflecting changing population and economic structures over time. For West Virginia, our results suggest that jobs follow people. Population density in 1990 was positively related to areas with higher proportions of farmland in cropland in 1980, but was negatively related to those areas where larger proportions of cropland were in pasture. End of decade employment was not statistically associated with quantity of farmland in any of the models. There are at least two explanations for this result. First, the location of cropland in 1980 may be serving as a proxy for an omitted variable in the model (e.g., cropland may be spatially correlated with other factors contributing to population growth patterns in West Virginia). Second, the implied direction of causation maybe wrong. Growth may be a push factor in the decline of agricultural land, but agricultural land is not a pull factor for growth. We will expand this analysis to look at recursive models and other systems of equations models that better capture the relationships between agricultural land and growth.

Transitioning Economies in Rural Appalachia: Does Wilderness Play a Role? / Randall S. Rosenberger and John Murray / Research Paper #2002-7 / view paper with Acrobat Reader (pp. 41, 655K)
Abstract: This project investigates the negative and/or positive impacts of wilderness designation on rural counties in the Appalachian Region of the U.S. using a broad longitudinal dataset. Location quotients, as measures of relative shares of economic sectors in a county, are calculated for all economic sectors in all rural counties from 1969 to 1999. Several random effects trend models with first-order autocorrelation are used to test hypotheses regarding the impacts of wilderness designation. Several significant results suggest there is a difference between wilderness counties and other designated county types in rural Appalachia. However, what role wilderness actually played as a catalyst in the development of local economies is uncertain.

Recreational Opportunities and Health Status in West Virginia / Randall S. Rosenberger, Yoav Sneh, and Tim Phipps / Research Paper #2002-6
view paper with Acrobat Reader (pp. 24, 645K)
Abstract: Over half of all Americans are considered to be physically inactive and/or obese, leading to significant individual and societal costs. This study investigates the link between recreational supply and health status for West Virginia. Using spatial econometric techniques, we show that the demand for health care is positively associated with physical inactivity rates, and that physical inactivity rates are inversely related to the supply of recreational opportunities. When promoting the importance of physical activity as preventative health care, policy makers should consider the provision of recreational opportunities as a means to overcome sedentary behaviors.

Parametric and Non Parametric Testing for Income Convergence / James O. Bukenya, Tesfa Gebremedhin, and Peter V. Schaeffer / Research Paper #2002-5 / view paper with Acrobat Reader (pp. 23, 324K)
Abstract: This paper examines the degree to which per capita incomes have converged across counties in West Virginia over the last thirty years. The increase in government transfers and, possibly, other government assistance programs would suggest that incomes in spatially dispersed regions/counties within nation-state should become similar over this period. However, the interrelation between business cycles, migration, employment structure and changes in per capita earnings over time reduces this possibility. Comparable county data are obtained for two dissimilar regions: southern and eastern panhandle. The empirical results differ across the different measurement techniques used, but in general, the findings concur with the conclusions reached by previous studies that the convergence observed in earlier decades was replaced by divergence in the 1980s.

Race, Migration, and the Social Welfare System during the 1950s and 1960s: How Research can Mislead the Public Debate / Brian J. Cushing / Research Paper #2002-4 / view paper with Acrobat Reader (pp. 20, 165K)
Abstract: A large body of empirical research has concluded that, at least during the 1950s and 1960s, the effect of welfare benefits on migration differed significantly by racial group, with blacks being attracted by and whites repulsed by areas that provided high welfare benefits. This study revisits the issue of racial differences in attractiveness to interregional differences in welfare benefits, using data from the U.S. Census of Population and a simultaneous equation model of state-to-state migration that accounts for a variety of economic, amenity, and spatial factors. In contrast to most previous empirical work, there is no statistically significant evidence that either origin or destination AFDC benefits affected migration during the 1965-70 period. The analysis indicates that conclusions regarding the influence of interregional differentials in welfare benefits on migration can be very sensitive to specification of the migration model. A carefully specified model estimated using an appropriate econometric methodology, however, will yield robust results. This is critical to understand given the renewed interest in this policy issue as a consequence of the current decentralization of the welfare system.

Competition and Complementarity in Local Economic Development: A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach / Richard Healy and Randall W. Jackson
Research Paper #2002-3 is replaced by an article reprinted in Studies in Regional and Urban Planning 9: 21-49 (accepted in 2002, in print in 2003, dated 2001).
Abstract: Competition for local economic development has increased dramatically in the past 20 years. This competition is in many cases extremely costly to states and communities, while the benefits are uncertain. If regions whose economic fortunes are complementary could work with instead of against one another, costs of competition could be eliminated, while returns to economic development investments could be enhanced. This paper presents a method by which the underlying spatial economic relationships among areas within a region can be identified. Economic development policy can then be guided by the identification of the competitive or complementary links that exist among areas. The Dendrinos-Sonis (DS) model of relative social spatial dynamics is used to determine these relationships, in aggregate and on an industry-by-industry basis, in the Cincinnati metropolitan region. Sets of competitive and complementary region pairs are identified.

Price Convergence on World Commodity Markets: Fact or Fiction / James O. Bukenya and Walter C. Labys / Research Paper #2002-1
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Abstract: Recent attention to the use of commodity market derivatives as a vehicle for reducing the price risks of commodity exporting developing countries has renewed interest in the behavior of primary commodity prices separated by space. For some time a common belief has existed that commodity prices have converged over the last several decades on world markets. Increases in communications, central bank activities and globalization are cited as reasons as to why prices in spatially dispersed markets should become closer. However, the interrelations between business cycles and price instability are likely to reduce this possibility. To analyze this hypothesis, we utilize measures of market integration, regression, cointegration and impulse function analysis. Comparable geographic data have been compiled for six commodities: coffee, cotton, wheat, lead, copper and tin. The empirical results do not support the convergence hypothesis, but rather a pattern of fluctuating coherence.
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